Monday, September 19, 2005

Housing "CRISIS" in California

In an article of  the Long
Beach Press Telegram
today, the discussion was made about our
"Housing Bubble". According to

Christopher Thornberg
of UCLA, 'It appears to us we're at the peak of this
market, but it could take off again,' You bet it could Chris.

In his forcast, Christopher predicts prices will flatten, but at a
nominal rate, and, there is likely to be slow down in new construction
in the region. Hmmm. Historically, this is good for the real estate
market, at least for sellers. A slow down in new construction 
means less inventory available, which could mean a strong upturn in
prices for existing homes. Now is that going to happen? We'll have to
see if the new construction actually does slow down. It will of course,
I can style="font-style: italic; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;">ALMOST
guarantee it. Contractors and laborers are lining up to move out of
California, at least temporarily. In the United States, we are gearing
up for the largest re-building project ever in our nation's history.
Hurricane Katrina did one thing that may be a ray of sunshine -
Creating an environment where there will be lots of work available for
people who are skilled in any level of home building. The folks with
those skills would be wise to take a trip to those affected areas and
guarantee themselves some steady, well paid jobs. Translation,
California will see a drop in available, skilled, homebuilders -
thereby creating the slow down in new construction here.

Chris also said, "I think this is a market today where people are
buying a monthly payment. They aren't buying houses.". Isn't that the
way it always was? Unless you have enough capital to finance the entire
purchase price, you're most likely buying a mortgage. (did I mention
that I dislike "experts" who say dumb things and point out the obvious?)

So, bubble or not, we're in a seller's market and it seems that it will
stay that way,  for a while at least.


John Wall

Century 21 Results

The Realty Report

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